Doctor of Economics, Prof. E.M.Hajizadeh

Abstract

Improvement of forecasting methods of electricity demand

Trend of power consumption of the republic in recent years (1990-2010) is characterized by significant instability. In the regard, common extrapolation models used as forecast electricity consumption often leads to inaccurate and sometimes to absurd results. In some cases, mathematical models with low adequacy in comparison with mathematical models with higher adequacy lead to better results.

Analysis of calculations shows that partitioning of the total demand into various components (such as house hold consumption, Non-household consumption, industrial needs, etc.) followed by forecast of electricity consumption based on these components can lead to acceptable results.

It is recommended to use “GDP” non-oil sector, instead of “entire GDP” in forecasting calculations of energy consumption. In this context it is rational to realize all calculations based on volume of electricity which takes a part in formulation of GDP of non-oil sector.

160.Issues of improvement of methods for predicting energy consumption. (coaut hors - K.N.Ramazanov). Power engineering problems. Institute of Physics of ANAS. Baku: Elm, № 3, 2011, 1,1 ç.v.